58% of Gen Z Buyers Want a Housing Crash—Will They Get One?
Half the buyers out there are scared home prices are about to crash—while the other half are actively hoping they will. A recent survey from Clever Real Estate found that 58% of Gen Z buyers are rooting for a housing crash, just so owning a home might finally feel attainable.
So, what do official forecasts actually say?
Every quarter, Fannie Mae surveys over 100 housing experts to track where prices are heading. The consensus is clear: they are not calling for a crash.
What the Numbers Actually Say
The panel’s latest forecast projects home prices climbing every single year:
5-Year Growth: The panel’s average forecast projects a 14.7% price increase over the next 5 years.
Optimists vs. Pessimists: Even the most cautious segment of surveyed experts expects prices to rise around 6.6% by the end of 2030.
Local Trends: While national averages point up, local markets can run hotter or cooler based on regional supply and demand.
The takeaway? If you’re waiting on a market crash before buying, you could end up waiting a long time.
How Expectations Have Shifted
Because Fannie Mae runs this survey 4 times a year, we can see how expert sentiment evolves over time:
Short-Term Outlook: A year ago, experts anticipated 2.1% growth for the near term. That outlook was recently bumped up to 2.5%.
Longer-Term Pace: Looking out toward 2027 through 2029, annual growth estimates have moderated slightly compared to last year's forecasts.
Rather than signaling a downturn, this slower climb reflects a housing market settling into a healthier, more predictable pace after years of extreme volatility.
What It Means for Your Money
Percentages are helpful, but the potential wealth impact becomes clearer when broken down into actual dollars:
Purchase Price: Consider a property purchased for $400,000.
5-Year Equity Gain: Based on the panel's average forecast, that home would gain approximately $58,000 in value purely through price appreciation.
The Cost of Delay: Waiting on the sidelines for a crash that experts don't see coming risks paying a higher price later for the exact same home.
Bottom Line
Whether you’re bracing for a crash or hoping for one, the industry consensus remains the same—home prices are expected to keep rising. To understand what these national trends mean for your budget and target neighborhood, reach out to a local real estate professional to walk through your options.
